addivorte model
Binary AddiVortes: (Bayesian) Additive Voronoi Tessellations for Binary Classification with an application to Predicting Home Mortgage Application Outcomes
Stone, Adam J., Ogundimu, Emmanuel, Gosling, John Paul
The Additive Voronoi Tessellations (AddiVortes) model is a multivariate regression model that uses multiple Voronoi tessellations to partition the covariate space for an additive ensemble model. In this paper, the AddiVortes framework is extended to binary classification by incorporating a probit model with a latent variable formulation. Specifically, we utilise a data augmentation technique, where a latent variable is introduced and the binary response is determined via thresholding. In most cases, the AddiVortes model outperforms random forests, BART and other leading black-box regression models when compared using a range of metrics. A comprehensive analysis is conducted using AddiVortes to predict an individual's likelihood of being approved for a home mortgage, based on a range of covariates. This evaluation highlights the model's effectiveness in capturing complex relationships within the data and its potential for improving decision-making in mortgage approval processes.
- North America > United States (0.28)
- Europe > Switzerland (0.04)
H-AddiVortes: Heteroscedastic (Bayesian) Additive Voronoi Tessellations
Stone, Adam J., Gosling, John Paul
This paper introduces the Heteroscedastic AddiVortes model, a Bayesian non-parametric regression framework that simultaneously models the conditional mean and variance of a response variable using adaptive Voronoi tessellations. By employing a sum-of-tessellations approach for the mean and a product-of-tessellations approach for the variance, the model provides a flexible and interpretable means to capture complex, predictor-dependent relationships and heteroscedastic patterns in data. This dual-layer representation enables precise inference, even in high-dimensional settings, while maintaining computational feasibility through efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and conjugate prior structures. We illustrate the model's capability through both simulated and real-world datasets, demonstrating its ability to capture nuanced variance structures, provide reliable predictive uncertainty quantification, and highlight key predictors influencing both the mean response and its variability. Empirical results show that the Heteroscedastic AddiVortes model offers a substantial improvement in capturing distributional properties compared to both homoscedastic and heteroscedastic alternatives, making it a robust tool for complex regression problems in various applied settings.
- North America > United States (0.04)
- Europe > Switzerland (0.04)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning > Regression (0.68)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty > Bayesian Inference (0.46)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Learning Graphical Models > Directed Networks > Bayesian Learning (0.46)